Bassett Football Model
The Bassett football model is a system for ranking the relative strengths
of football teams. A key feature of this model is that it recognizes
that if two teams could play more than once the same team would not
always win (there is an element of chance involved). The system is
based on a simple model of a football game. For a given match-up of
two teams, a number of model games are simulated by a computer and the
average scores and the percentage of times each team wins is computed.
Each week during the football season the best fit of offensive and
defensive strengths is found for each team consistent with the actual
scores. I do include considerations for home field advantage and for
the possibility that teams may score less than expected in a blow-out if
they choose to run out time instead of score more points in the latter
part of a game.
Quick menu:
The purpose of this football web page is to provide an unbiased
analysis of the teams: how they compare with each other and what sort
of results to expect from upcoming games. It is not my intention,
however, to encourage gambling with this information. I have purposely
presented the information in a way that will minimize its usefulness in
this regard while still providing useful entertainment, etc.
Comments on how to avoid
the misuse of these web pages for gambling are most welcome.
Enjoy!
2023 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)
- Week 0 (27 Aug):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 1 (31 Aug - 4 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 2 (7-10 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 3 (14-16 Sep):
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- Week 4 (21-24 Sep):
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- Week 5 (28-30 Sep):
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- Week 6 (4-7 Oct):
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- Week 7 (10-14 Oct):
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- Week 8 (17-21 Oct):
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- Week 9 (24-29 Oct):
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- Week 10 (31 Oct - 4 Nov):
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- Week 11 (7-11 Nov):
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- Week 12 (14-19 Nov):
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- Week 13 (21-25 Nov):
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- Week 14 (2 Dec):
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- Week 15 (8-9 Dec):
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- Bowl Games:
Forecast ,
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- FBS & FCS Championship Games:
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Bassett Model rankings:
The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins.
It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how
all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule.
(Available after the 5th week in the season.)
The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average,
going by point performance.
18 Jan 2024: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(ranked by team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)
2023 NFL Forecast
- Week 1 (7-11 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 2 (14-18 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 3 (21-25 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 4 (28 Sep - 2 Oct):
Forecast ,
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- Week 5 (5-9 Oct):
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- Week 6 (12-16 Oct):
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- Week 7 (19-23 Oct):
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- Week 8 (26-30 Oct):
Forecast ,
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- Week 9 (2-6 Nov):
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- Week 10 (9-13 Nov):
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- Week 11 (16-20 Nov):
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- Week 12 (23-27 Nov):
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- Week 13 (30 Nov - 4 Dec):
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- Week 14 (7-11 Dec):
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- Week 15 (14-18 Dec):
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- Week 16 (21-25 Dec):
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Results
- Week 17 (28-31 Dec):
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Results
- Week 18 (7 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Postseason: Wild Card (13-14 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Postseason: Divisional (20-21 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Postseason: Conference (28 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Super Bowl (11 Feb):
Forecast
Links of interest
Please email comments or questions to
bfm@BassettFootball.net